Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-10-06 0.928416 1.088840 1.268665 1.485208 1.738983 2.027094 2.379224
2024-10-13 0.641712 0.842760 1.094696 1.433786 1.878771 2.443637 3.216611
2024-10-20 0.488788 0.695767 0.976550 1.385698 1.967783 2.768043 3.955446
2024-10-27 0.390390 0.593144 0.886443 1.342255 2.034650 3.050260 4.659724
2024-11-03 0.335645 0.539495 0.851191 1.363327 2.186649 3.463924 5.606875
2024-11-10 0.309440 0.523064 0.866317 1.459142 2.461849 4.097578 6.986130
2024-11-17 0.278788 0.493326 0.853952 1.505703 2.660265 4.631926 8.280161
2024-11-24 0.247480 0.456810 0.823625 1.514933 2.793015 5.069878 9.468780
2024-12-01 0.218407 0.419310 0.785260 1.502410 2.882140 5.438961 10.581998
2024-12-08 0.194678 0.387846 0.752778 1.494752 2.976863 5.827479 11.783945
2024-12-15 0.177120 0.365484 0.733874 1.509536 3.115225 6.314654 13.246498
2024-12-22 0.154808 0.330243 0.684774 1.456395 3.108639 6.512993 14.146548
2024-12-29 0.149920 0.330905 0.709143 1.560823 3.448882 7.475245 16.827806
2025-01-05 0.131640 0.300260 0.664252 1.511173 3.452596 7.732494 18.018673
2025-01-12 0.115845 0.272702 0.621998 1.460746 3.446335 7.965597 19.189321
2025-01-19 0.102512 0.248760 0.584327 1.414952 3.443268 8.204058 20.407824
2025-01-26 0.095345 0.238312 0.576056 1.437173 3.604495 8.846483 22.705112
2025-02-02 0.093623 0.240876 0.598808 1.538214 3.973614 10.039619 26.569459
2025-02-09 0.088916 0.235227 0.600772 1.587314 4.218944 10.962042 29.881316
2025-02-16 0.082571 0.224395 0.588246 1.597048 4.363270 11.647925 32.671849
2025-02-23 0.075785 0.211374 0.568250 1.583841 4.443907 12.177744 35.116218
2025-03-02 0.069914 0.199999 0.551046 1.575765 4.537568 12.756089 37.791114
2025-03-09 0.065572 0.192286 0.542697 1.591356 4.700588 13.549447 41.219104